Image via @LaczyNasPilka on Twitter
Poland welcome Scotland to the Stadion Narodowy tonight in a game which will determine whether or not Poland find themselves heading into a relegation play-off to stay in Division A of the Nations League or whether they will be relegated outright to Division B.
A point is all the home side need to ensure they stay with a fighting chance of staying in the higher division, which brings with it the rewards in the Uefa coefficient as well as higher seedings for tournament play-offs, such as their last-ditch Euros qualification only earlier this year.
This all takes place against the backdrop of Friday’s disastrous second half in Porto where Poland ended up thoroughly embarrassed by a 5-1 scoreline, which whilst flattering to Portugal, certainly reflected accurately how Poland let the game get out of hand very quickly.
Amongst the fallout from Friday included the lack of registration for Karol Świderski by team manager Łukasz Gawrjołek, Piotr Zieliński and Nicola Zalewski taking pictures post-match with Cristiano Ronaldo, and Marcin Bułka wearing Łukasz Skorupski’s shorts for the second half.
All this is really a distraction from the real issue which plagues most Polish minds since Friday night, and that is the topic yet again of Poland’s defence. Solid in the first half, they conceded fairly early in the second and were holding on up until a penalty was awarded, resulting in 2-0. Then, the collapse was truly astounding. I understand the excuse being given by players and management is that Poland then had to go for it in attack, but realistically no matter how open they let the game get a 5-1 scoreline is bordering on unacceptable given that they weren’t all easy chances for Portugal to score.
Fingers have understandably been pointed at Bułka, although other than Portugal’s fourth, there is little he could have done. He clearly feels the same way, having said as much in yesterday’s press conference, also attended by Michał Probierz, Zieliński and Gawrjołek.
Gawrjołek has my sympathies, as it was clearly the sort of admin error whilst which not disastrous, felt so in the context and could have easily cost the man his job. Realistically, it does feel a little bit like we’re focusing on the individual grains of sand rather than the beach, if we can go with that metaphor.
The beach is question is that of Poland’s defence. Say what you want about my ardent sticking up for Jan Bednarek, but as soon as he was taken out of the game injured there was no real organisation or leadership in that backline. Bednarek, as well as being a perfectly fine defender, also provides that leadership which Poland’s rearguard can often be lacking in. I’d like to see Jakub Kiwior turn into someone like that, but early indications are he doesn’t seem up to it yet.
Crowing about the defence is part of the reason why Probierz is facing a period of criticism that really signals the first serious doubts during his time in charge of the national team. To me it is perfectly reasonable that these Nations League fixtures would be the first time Probierz would face these particular criticisms, given the first six months of his reign showed solid improvements, and the Euros performances were admirable for the most part.
I wrote on Friday after the Portugal result that if Poland lose tonight, Probierz could find his job at risk. Whilst I don’t think he would be sacked, it would start a six month period of misery until Poland play again and a run of bad results could catch up with him quickly.
Realistically, how can Probierz improve the defence? I like the fact that he has a style of play he doesn’t want to compromise and some of the time individual mistakes can’t be attributed for. However, a fair few of the goals on Friday night were collective breakdowns, and that is worrying. Again, the first half was really solid, but it is a concern that taking just one defender out leads to such a stark difference.
There is hope Poland might again try a back four, although that was tried in part on Friday and didn’t bring any reward. Personnel? A recall for Matty Cash might help things and according to a story by Mateusz Borek it might have come this month had Cash not picked up an injury playing for Aston Villa. Aside from that, there is little else that can be done.
A lot of it could actually be solved, in my opinion, with having more than one holding midfielder (or one of higher quality). Looking at Friday night, if you were to drop Zieliński or another midfielder slightly but not completely alongside Romanczuk, there is less chance of being picked off in transition. Many of the easier chances Poland have given up under Probierz tend to be when the midfield is bypassed completely by the opposition, either transitionally or through a mistimed press.
Bednarek, along with Bartosz Bereszyński and Taras Romanczuk, will miss several weeks through injury and won’t be available this evening. Speaking of, here is the predicted line-up for tonight against Scotland:
It’s a concern that Kacper Urbański is dropped in favour of a two-striker system, and I hope he will make an appearance on the pitch at some juncture given how lacklustre Poland have sometimes looked without him in the past five months since his debut. Otherwise, there is little to complain about. Sebastian Szymański’s fitness is a worry, but even if he can’t start you do still have other options such as Urbański and Bartosz Slisz. Different profiles, but playing well and in the case of Slisz deserving of another go in the national team given his MLS playoff exploits.
Circling back to the conversation about which Nations League division Poland might find themselves playing in, there seems to be a healthy desire from supporters that Poland should actually find themselves relegated, in the hope of playing at a slightly lower level and building some momentum. I’m hesitant to agree with this, as Poland playing in Division A was a key reason as to why and how they were able to qualify for Euro 2024, and I would argue that builds a greater sense of momentum than playing countries like Northern Ireland and North Macedonia with all due respect.
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